by Capt. Matt Mitchell

John from Ohio got in on the redfish action this week

These crazy strong winds we have experienced for almost all of October aren’t part of the annual pattern. Cooler-than-normal daytime temperatures, although pleasant, make it feel like it’s winter already. With this being an El Niño year, predictions call for a cooler, wetter-than-normal winter, so basically expect the unexpected on the water this winter. Fishing is all about patterns, and this year’s pattern is going to be very different from what we normally see.

Despite the winds, the fishing this week was very predictable. Higher-than-forecast tides made for the perfect setup to fish the many oyster bars throughout the sound. With prevailing NE winds, it didn’t make sense that we had such high tides, since the wind should have blown all the water out of the sound. I know this time of year we have King tides, but the tide predictions were not even close to the actual conditions.

If there is a plus to all this wind, though, it’s that it’s been out of the same NNE direction and hasn’t changed at all. This consistent wind direction has kept the water on the east side of the sound super clear. The same wind direction day after day also means the fish set up and don’t move around much; once you locate them, it’s just a matter of returning day after day.

Our water temperature is also off this year and lower than normal, hanging in the low to mid 70s. This is 5-10 degrees cooler than we would normally have this time of year. This hasn’t slowed the bite, but it’s just off compared to a normal year, when we don’t see a cold front until at least Halloween. All signs point to a strange, different winter than we are used to.

Reading the day’s conditions and putting the ever-changing puzzle together is what it takes to catch fish. A big part of what fishing guides do is draw on experience, whether from the past few days on the water or from years past, to locate and catch fish. So many variables, including wind, water temperature, and tides, go into where the fish are. This daily challenge is one of the parts of the job I like the most. It’s great when you nail it, and when you don’t, it’s a work in progress.

Capt. Matt Mitchell moved to Sanibel in 1980 and has lived in St. James City since 2000, when he started his fishing charter business. He spends over 300 days a year “living the dream” fishing. For questions and info: bookings@captmattmitchell.com

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